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What is an Economic Recession? This occurs when there is a significant decline in the economy which usually lasts for months. This is visible in terms of consumer spending, employment, industrial production, real income and wholesale trade. A technical indicator of this is 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth which is measured by the countrys GDP or gross domestic product. Experts say that an economic recession is normal because it is part of the business cycle and things usually improve within 16 to 18 months. During the business cycle, there is a period of recovery, expansion, slowdown and then recession. During recovery, the GDP of a country starts to move up. When the GDP grows robustly, this is the time that it expands. When consumers are not buying that much, this is when you have a slowdown. Because there is weaker demand, you have a recession. The last economic recession occurred in 2000 and 2001 which featured three quarters of negative growth followed by three positive quarters then five more quarters of sub par growth. Experts say that the same trend will happen right now. One solution that the government usually does is lower interest rates to help stimulate the economy. Just last year, the Federal government slashed interest rates three times towards the end of the third and fourth quarter year so that overnight loans between banks could be borrowed at 4.25% which happens to be its lowest in the past 2 years. What makes the economic recession different from what occurred after the Second World War is that this one is caused by falling home values and a crisis of confidence among fixed income investors. Despite the fact that the country has endured this time and again for over 50 years, there is still no way to predict when it will happen. Some use the stock market as an indicator. Others use the inverted yield curve which uses yields on a 10 year and three month Treasury securities and the Feds overnight funds rate. The unemployment rate is also another which happens to be one of the things that make up the index of leading indicators. There are people in the Bush administration who do want to call it an economic recession because this will make people panic but there are others who are brave enough to admit that it is here. Since it is going to be some time before the economy recovers again, everyone is advised to stay calm, save up and look for long term investments worth going into. Apart from the war in Iraq, the economy is going to be one of the critical issues that both candidates have to address as they are campaigning for the highest post in the land. Whoever wins, they have to find a way to reduce the unemployment rate, help people save their homes and a lot of other things that affect the average American household. An economic recession lasts months at a time. If it should continue for a much longer period, then this is called a depression which is something that the world and not only the US experienced at the end of the First World War. This lasted for up to 4 years that many hope will never happen again.



Australia Faces the ‘Full Brunt’ of Global Recession (Update1) (Bloomberg)

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s economy, which has so far skirted the global recession, may stall after reports showed exports dropped to a 14-month low, bank lending fell and home- building approvals declined by the most since 2002.

Recession doesn't stop new businesses in Gatlinburg (WATE 6 Knoxville)

Even during the recession, one East Tennessee town is growing. All kinds of businesses are moving into downtown Gatlinburg.

Obama: Job figures sobering, but show recession is slowing (CNN)

President Obama on Thursday called the nation's latest unemployment figures sobering, but said the economic recession is slowing.

Canada's recession losses to be long term: report (Reuters via Yahoo! News)

More Canadians will be out of work in 2014 than prior to the recession, even if the economy recovers quickly and expands at a healthy clip for the next five years, a prominent economist forecast on Thursday.

Gilts Rise, Pound Drops on Evidence End of Recession Isn’t Near (Bloomberg)

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Gilts rose and the pound fell as a U.S. employment report fanned speculation the recession won’t end anytime soon and U.K. policy maker David Miles said banks remain “on life support.”

Rand Snaps 7-Day Rally as Nomura Says Gains to Deepen Recession (Bloomberg)

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- South Africa’s rand weakened against the dollar for the first time in eight days as analysts speculated the strongest rally among emerging-market currencies will deepen the country’s recession.

Jeweller shines during recession (BBC News)

A Northern Ireland jewellery chain bucks the trend by expanding and thriving during the recession.

ECB Keeps Rates Steady as New Tools Used to Battle Recession (Bloomberg)

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank kept interest rates steady as it rolls out new tools to battle the worst recession since World War II.

Delticom Forecasts Lower Second-Half Margin as Recession Hits (Bloomberg)

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Delticom AG , Europe’s largest online tire retailer, predicts its margin for earnings before interest and tax to fall in the second half as the recession and a surge in the sales of new cars erode demand.

Manufacturing Data Support Optimism Recession Is Ending (Investor's Business Daily via Yahoo! News)

U.S. manufacturing shrank at the slowest rate in 10 months in June, an industry group said, adding to a raft of data Wednesday suggesting the recession is bottoming out.


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